Year 2, Month 8, Day 19: We’re Still Learning More About Gravity!

The August 2 edition of the Deseret News (UT) contains more false equivalency bullshit:

In the face of repeated assertions that the science on global warming is “settled,” ongoing studies and developments in the area leave some insisting that claim remains true, while others say the science is anything but.

According to Gallup’s annual environmental poll, the percentage of Americans saying they worry a great deal or a fair amount about global warming has fallen from a high of 66 percent in 2008 to a stable 51 percent in 2011. Furthermore, 43 percent of Americans say the seriousness of global warming is exaggerated in the news.

A breakdown of global warming poll data shows that the issue remains mainly ideological, with 72 percent of Democrats saying they worry about global warming compared to 51 percent of Independents and 31 percent of Republicans.

As the global warming debate becomes more politicized in individual attitudes, state governments, Congress and even within the United Nations, the possibility of the science becoming truly “settled” appears unlikely.

In a study published July 25 in the science journal Remote Sensing, William Braswell and Roy Spencer, a principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville and a former senior scientist for climate studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, suggest the Earth’s atmosphere is more efficient at releasing energy into space than models used to forecast climate change have been programmed to “believe.”

As an atheist I strive to avoid theonormative expletives. So I have a limited rhetorical palette available for properly cursing these fuckers. Sent August 2:

It’s amazing how much faith Republican politicians and members of the media place in science. Just watch as they cite the Braswell/Spencer study as an invalidation of the work of hundreds of other researchers. Their readiness to trust a paper which has already been criticized as methodologically flawed is touching in its innocence. Of course this has nothing to do with the study’s usefulness to the anti-environmental agenda; such a suggestion is terribly cynical!

Sigh.

Scientific integrity demands that experimental results must be regarded skeptically; ideologically convenient findings should be even more subject to careful scrutiny. The scientific consensus on human causes of climate change is built on an enormous body of work that has withstood attempts at falsification. To say the “science isn’t settled” does not mean the basic principles are invalid, only that there are still gaps in our knowledge. The science of global warming is as settled as it needs to be, despite the wishful thinking of denialists in Congress and the media.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 18: They Would, However, Vote To Burn Environmentalists.

The August 1 edition of Grist notes that Henry Waxman and Ed Markey have been keeping track of the Republican anti-environment pathology:

Reps. Henry Waxman (Calif.) and Edward Markey (Mass.), of the Waxman-Markey climate change bill, have been keeping tabs on Republican votes to undermine environmental legislation. They say that since taking over the majority in January, Republicans have voted 110 times to block or weaken legislation intended to protect the environment.

Waxman says of the findings that “the new Republican majority seems intent on restoring the robber-baron era,” and Markey compared the GOP agenda to a rifle “pointed right at the heart of America’s clean energy future.” This is fairly colorful, but the thing is, you don’t have to take their word for it — they have a chart with all the votes! Nothing like solid data to confirm your notion that you should be under the couch crying about the future of the country.

What would Theodore Roosevelt think of the Republican Party today? The man who created our world-renowned national park system and helped bring today’s environmental movement into being would be justifiably outraged at the behavior of modern Republicans. It’s not just anti-environment legislation, though. The current crop of tea-party zealots are anti-science, anti-math, and anti-reality, as well as anti-Democrat. What this means is that even eminently sensible and desirable bills are doomed if they’re introduced by the GOP’s political enemies, as witness their steady opposition to anything addressing our country’s energy future with anything more nuanced than “drill, baby, drill.” While Teddy is no doubt spinning in his grave as members of the GOP eviscerate environmental protections, we can’t use the power he’s generating: since it would reduce profits for the multinational corporations who own American politics lock, stock and barrel, the bill would die in committee.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 17: Slippery When Wet.

Tuscon Citizen for August 1 ran a USA Today squib on the world’s melting glaciers:

Two of three Himalayan glaciers — both in humid areas of eastern Nepal — could disappear if present climate change patterns continue, a study released today predicts.

The Rikha Samba glacier, in a relatively arid area of western Nepal, showed little shrinkage in the past decade compared with the two prior decades, but the other two glaciers, known as Yala and AX010, show accelerated wastage over the last decade, according to the study.

The researchers say glaciers in humid environments can exist at lower altitudes, leaving them vulnerable to warming. They say that if climate trends observed since the 1990s continue, these two glaciers may disappear because ice masses will probably not receive enough snow to replenish the shrinkage.

After writing the letter I found they had no LTE mechanism at all…so I just left the beautifully crafted 150-word piece as a comment. The hell with it. Web comments don’t usually count as letters in my book, but I’m too tired to care at the moment. Posted August 1:

One of the most alarming aspects of the news that the world’s glaciers are dwindling rapidly under the onslaught of global climate change is that so few Americans are paying attention. Perhaps glaciers are too far away and unfamiliar, or the year of their projected final disappearance from the planet is still too remote. Perhaps people have more pressing concerns: jobs, the economy, healthcare. But ultimately there’s no greater issue than the survival of the environment; politicians’ attempts to frame it as an either/or debate are extremely misleading. Our aspirations to economic growth disregard the fact that we live on a finite world; continued expansion beyond the capacity of Earth’s natural systems is a fatally flawed aspiration. The melting glaciers are one of many indicators that the planet’s resources are failing. If Americans don’t pay attention now, we’re in for a series of very unpleasant surprises in the coming decades.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 16: If This Ends Differently, I Will Be Extremely Surprised. Extremely.

The July 31 New York Times reports on Charles Monnet, the scientist who (along with Jeffrey Gleason) wrote the “dead-polar-bear” report that stirred things up among the Bushies. He’s been suspended on “integrity” issues, with the inquiry focusing on the very same report. Gee. Why does this not smell legit?

The federal government has suspended a wildlife biologist whose sightings of dead polar bears in Arctic waters became a rallying point for campaigners seeking to blunt the impact of global warming.

The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, Regulation and Enforcement notified the biologist, Charles Monnett, on July 18 that he had been placed on administrative leave pending an internal investigation into “integrity issues,” according to a copy of a letter posted online by the watchdog group Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility.

Documents posted by the group indicate that the inquiry centers on a 2006 report that Dr. Monnett co-wrote on deaths among polar bears swimming in the Beaufort Sea.

Come on. What’s more likely? A grossly corrupt scientist — or a bureaucracy that doesn’t know what the fuck it’s doing and is staffed with stupid vengeful people? Maybe I’m an idealist about scientists, but I’ve seen a lot more vicious bureaucrats than I have corrupt research scientists. Sent July 31:

When government investigates scientists, the results are often comical at best and Kafkaesque at worst. Whereas the mechanisms of law and administration are readily susceptible to egregious misuse, those of scientific research are far harder to corrupt. The allegations of misconduct against Dr. Charles Monnet are likely to prove a singular example of this fact. Dr. Monnet, whose work was terribly inconvenient for the previous administration’s corporate sponsors, is probably the victim of a toxic combination: a scientifically ignorant bureaucrat with a grudge. We’ve heard this story before; it’s “climategate” — with bears. Although repeated investigations totally demolished the East Anglia non-scandal, the lies about it continue to spread. Similarly, we can expect eventual inquiry to vindicate Monnet and Gleason’s findings while their names nevertheless endure continued calumnies from the ignorant and vengeful. All of us are the losers thereby, for the world needs good scientists more than bad bureaucrats.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 15: Lord Of The Flies

The July 30 New York Times reports on further criminality from those crazy House Republicans, this time in the form of “riders” on other bills. Read it and weep:

While almost no one was looking, House Republicans embarked last week on a broad assault on the nation’s environmental laws, using as their weapon the 2012 spending bill for the Interior Department and the Environmental Protection Agency. When debate began Monday, the bill included an astonishing 39 anti-environmental riders — so called because they ride along on appropriations bills even though they have nothing to do with spending and are designed to change policy, in this case disastrously.

Riders generally are not subjected to hearings or extensive debate, and many would not survive on their own. They are often written in such a way that most people, even many Capitol Hill insiders, need a guide to understand them. They are, in short, bad policy pushed forward through a bad legislative process.

A rider can be removed from the bill only with a vote to strike it. The Democrats managed one big victory on Wednesday when, by a vote of 224 to 202, the House struck one that would have gutted the Endangered Species Act by blocking the federal government from listing any new species as threatened or endangered and barring it from protecting vital habitat — a provision so extreme that even some Republicans could not countenance it.

These people are not going to be satisfied until there is nothing living in the wild, anywhere on Earth. Sent July 30:

Inserting anti-environment riders on unrelated bills is a flagrant corruption of the mechanisms of our government, but as we have seen time and time again, there is no abuse of the legislative process too egregious for the current Congress. Many of these attachments seem completely senseless until we recognize that they were written for our politicians by specialists from industries affected by environmental regulations. Since weakening of EPA or other regulatory authority translates into higher profits, industry-friendly riders are worth a lot of money.

There are some essential questions which all Americans need to ask when we learn about this practice: Should our laws be written by corporations for their own benefit? Is it possible to instill an ethic of collective responsibility in multinational corporations? Is a fixation on short-term profits the best guide for the business sector’s approach to environmental issues? The obvious answers: no, no and no.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 12: The Water Is Wide

Well, looks like it’s time to start buying beachfront property in Northern Florida, reports the South Florida Sun-Sentinel (July 27):

South Florida can’t afford to ignore growing dangers from pollution-fueled climate change, according to new findings from the Natural Resources Defense Council.

Rising seas, more flooding from storm surge and saltwater seeping in and fouling drinking water supplies are among the looming threats from climate-altering pollution, according to the environmental group’s nationwide review released Tuesday.

South Florida, and Miami in particular, is one of the most vulnerable parts of the country, and local governments need to play a larger role in dealing with the damaging effects of climate change, according to the NRDC.

It’s a good excuse to call out Rick Scott. Sent July 27:

With even fairly conservative models suggesting a good chance that most of the Florida peninsula will be under water by the century’s end, it would seem a no-brainer for the state’s residents and government to start focusing on adaptive strategies to cope with the effects of climate change. While we humans haven’t shown much real skill at long-range planning in the course of our evolution so far, that will have to change if we are to survive in the climatically-transformed future that now seems all but inevitable. Our economic systems are built around the requirements of quick profitability, just as our political systems are geared to the exigencies of two, four, or six-year electoral cycles; it’s no wonder that we’re failing to craft a sustainable future. What we need from our business and political leaders is long-term vision; what we get from politicians like Rick Scott is myopic greed.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 11: Yogi & Boo-Boo Will Have To Wear Protective Clothing

The Sacramento Bee for July 25 describes a new study on the likely increase in wildfires as a consequence of climate change…and what it’s going to mean for Yellowstone National Park:

The study by Westerling and his colleagues, which will be published online this week in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggests that the expected rising temperatures caused by climate change could increase the frequency of large wildfires in Yellowstone to an unprecedented level, according to a news release from the university.

The projected increase in fires would probably cause a major shift in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem, with fewer dense forests and more open woodland, grass and shrub vegetation.

The change could happen by 2050, Westerling theorizes, with forests becoming younger, the mix of tree species changing and some forests failing to regenerate after repeated fires. That would affect the region’s wildlife, hydrology, carbon storage and aesthetics, the news release said.

“What surprised us about our results was the speed and scale of the projected changes in fire in greater Yellowstone,” Westerling said. “We expected fire to increase with increased temperatures, but we did not expect it to increase so much or so quickly. We were also surprised by how consistent the changes were across different climate projections.”

Sent July 26:

Yellowstone has long been the figurehead of our nation’s National Park system. From iconic geysers to astonishing ecologies, this extraordinary area is not only one of the world’s great wonders, but an unparalleled tourist attraction. Looking into the future, however, it’s hard to imagine the same crowds will show up for the regular forest fires that the UC Merced study predicts as a consequence of regional droughts and climate change? Yellowstone isn’t alone; other parks throughout the country are already feeling the effects of the past century’s emissions of greenhouse gases. How much devastation must global warming wreak on our country’s landscape before the professional denialists and their science-blind followers come to their senses? What would Theodore Roosevelt say to the current crop of law-makers who are eagerly destroying his legacy? Between climate change and anti-environment legislators, our country’s national parks are in greater danger than ever before.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 10: (facepalm)

Ha ha ha ha ha. In the middle of a heat wave, this is the best the July 23 Richmond Times-Dispatch can come up with:

Climate is not static but always in flux. The Earth has seen periods of warming and periods of cooling. The Ice Age was not a myth. Global warming is not a myth, either — which does not mean that the climate of the entire globe eventually will resemble the climate of equatorial Africa. Significant consequences can flow from seemingly modest changes in temperature and precipitation, however.

The trend may have gone beyond the point that it can be reversed. It also may be possible that relatively modest endeavors can help humanity adjust to changes and even forestall the worst-case scenarios.

This can be done without jettisoning the economic system. Indeed, market economies may be more able to cope than the alternatives. The Pentagon takes climate change seriously. Sensible responses likely will have to come from the right. Richard Nixon went to China. Will conservatives be credited with climate breakthroughs?

Give me a fucking break.

Sent July 24:

So conservatives are going to come up with usable solutions for climate change? Really? They’ll have to solve a few problems of their own — like admitting that it’s real, and caused by a greenhouse effect thrown badly out of balance by human emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Yes, Nixon went to China — but everyone acknowledged that the nation was real, and that diplomatic recognition could no longer be delayed. Present-day Republicans, however, would be shrieking that “China” was a liberal fabrication, and threatening primary challenges against any legislator who acknowledged its existence and importance. Finally, they must recognize that the long-term consequences of failure to act are far worse than a below-average quarterly profit report from one of their sponsors in the fossil fuel industry. Conservatives must get their own house in order before they can plausibly offer solutions to the looming threat of climate chaos.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 9: Insecurity.

Sigh:

NYT, 07/23/11:
UNITED NATIONS — The persistent inability of the United Nations to forge international consensus on climate change issues was on display Wednesday, as Security Council members disagreed over whether they should address possible instability provoked by problems like rising sea levels or competition over water resources.

Western powers like the United States argued that the potential effects of climate change, including the mass migrations of populations, made it a crucial issue in terms of global peace and security. Russia and China, backed by much of the developing world, rejected the notion that the issue even belonged on the Security Council agenda.

Ditherers. Sent July 23:

It is absolutely indisputable that climate change is an international security issue. Every one of the factors currently considered security threats by the world’s nations will be hugely exacerbated by the rapidly warming climate. The planet’s weather patterns are becoming wilder, weirder and more damaging in response to the mounting greenhouse effect. Can there be any doubt that a similar transformation is going to unfold in the geopolitical arena? When nations are threatened with extinction as a consequence of rising sea levels, when vast regions may be depopulated by drought, when increasingly scarce resources will make everyday life all over the world a struggle for survival, the question is not whether global heating belongs on the agenda of the UN Security Council, but whether anything else poses an equal threat to global stability. What is crucial is action, for the Earth’s window of opportunity is closing faster by the day.

Warren Senders

Year 2, Month 8, Day 6: Department of Tribal Ironies

The NYT’s blog “Scientist At Work” reports on a study done in Mongolia which shows that the herders there are very much up to date on how bad things are getting:

Mongolian herders may not know the term “global climate change,” but almost all know that their weather is changing. If asked whether the weather will get better, stay the same or get worse, most of them will say the weather will get worse. Mongolian herders already face difficult seasons with winter temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius and strong, gusty cold spring winds. Summer may not offer much of a respite. The days alternate between cold nights and daytime heat waves or cold, windy, rainy days. Over the last 20 years strong wind gusts have become more frequent and storms arrive with little warning. The herders love their lives, but many are afraid there may be no future in herding for their children.

I sent this as a letter to the Times on July 20, but I’m also sending it as a comment to this blog; I’m a belt-and-suspenders kind of guy, I guess.

It used to be that the phrase “outer Mongolia” was a kind of not-so-clever shorthand for “the back of beyond” — a place utterly removed from the fast-moving news of the day, with a population steeped in ignorance and superstition. How far we’ve come. The herders of Mongolia are fully aware of the vagaries of our fluctuating climate; they may be remote, but they’re not stupid, and their lives and their livings are threatened by the rapid transformation of Earth’s atmosphere. Meanwhile, in our own country, the proudly ignorant citizens of Republicanistan cling to complex and irrational belief systems. Rejecting as irrelevant such modern concepts as evidence, proof, causality and logic, they base their tribal decision-making on magic incantations and the invocation of divine forces. What does it say about our contemporary political environment when Mongolian herders are more sensible about climate issues than over half of the US Congress?

Warren Senders